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2013 Predictions from the Center Mid-Field (CMF)

By November 7, 2012CMF Blog

Economic Predictions

  • U.S. unemployment ↓ from 8.2% to 7.5%
  • U.S. GDP ↑ from 1.8% to 2.7%
  • Fed funds rate ↑ from 0.13% to 0.25%
  • Ten-Year Treasury Note rate ↑ from 1.83% to 2.50%
  • Savings Rate ↓ from 3.9% to 3.5%
  • Budget deficit ↓ from $1,089B to $700B
  • Oil prices ↓ from $96.16 to $90 per barrel
  • USD/EUR exchange rate ↑ $1.28 to $1.35
  • USD/GBP exchange rate ↓ $1.58 to $1.50
  • Renminbi/USD ↓ 6.33 RMB to 6.10 RMB

Socio-Political Predictions

  • Tax cliff gets resolved
  • New Chinese leader Xi Jinping puts China back on the growth track with 8% growth in 2013
  • 1% growth in Europe for 2013
  • Online options for education begin to take a toll on business models of for-profit and not-for-profit post-secondary education
  • Iranian regime comes under pressure from internal forces

Industry Predictions

  • PE M&A deal volume flat year-over-year
  • Industrial production up 2.0%
  • US retail sales up 2.7%
  • Construction up 20%
  • US Air, Continental, Delta are all profitable; American Airlines is not
  • Microsoft finally gets a few things right – stock price up 20%; Apple stumbles – stock price down 10%
  • Coal exports up 15% and coal as a percentage of fuel used by US power plants decreases 10%
  • Large banks – JP Morgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs – see profits increase 25%
  • Legislation is passed that increases the “carried interest tax rate” for private equity over a five to ten year period
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